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Posted by Eric Murtaugh on July 23rd, 2010 under Football
I get a real kick out of reading predictions for the upcoming Notre Dame season, from fan and foe alike.
At first glance this off-season doesn’t seem very different from any other.
There are those who think Notre Dame will be great, those who think the exact opposite, and opinions falling everywhere in between.
Despite such a variety of predictions, there is an issue that keeps coming up that needs to be discussed.
That issue is how the recent past has damaged Notre Dame fans psyche and skewed their outlook on everything from the talented roster to predictions for the upcoming season.
You see the past fifteen years, and especially the past three years, have altered so many Irish fans’ mindset that even a fairly loaded roster is no longer looked upon with tremendous anticipation.
Everyone knows there are fans out there looking at things objectively and believing that Notre Dame could be really good in the fall, yet some are so petrified to believe that there will be little more than a slight improvement upon the recent .500 seasons.
How many times have you come across the phrase, “After the last three years, I’m not getting my hopes up?”
I think I’m well into the hundreds.
And how many times have you heard someone exclaim that they cannot get excited about Brian Kelly because of what happened with the previous three coaches?
If someone wants to keep the expectations to a relative minimum, I guess that’s fine, but if the fans are not going to get excited for the 2010 season and beyond, then who will?
I’m talking about those fans (and you know who you are) that deep down are really excited and believe good things could happen starting on September 4th against Purdue, but who also steadfastly refuse to acknowledge anything greater than a 7-win season.
It goes something like this, “Well multiple preseason magazines and talking heads claimed Notre Dame would be good last year. And I thought they’d be good last year.
But they only won six games! Therefore, next year we should tone down the expectations, lest we have to deal with everyone telling us we’ll be good and still falling flat on our face again.”
Come on, we’re not anywhere near the level of “expected failure” like Cubs fans and Cleveland fans, are we?
I sure hope not.
One of the other main points I wanted to make is that a growing segment of people are not viewing the 2008 and 2009 Notre Dame seasons as underachieving, but rather results more in line with the talent of the program.
That is not true at all; there has been some serious underachieving in recent years.
Further, a lot of people probably don’t want to admit it, but Notre Dame has the talent to be a top ten team in 2010.
It’s not so much the questions about a new system or problems with the defense that are holding people back from embracing this notion, as much as the expected failure syndrome.
“It’s Notre Dame,” they cry. “They have been hyped for the past two years and never lived up to it. Why will next year be any different?”
What if we try to look at it another way?
What if we detach ourselves from the stigma associated with Notre Dame?
If we are to forget the past and simply judge Notre Dame by its roster, experience and coaching, does a predicted 7-5 record seem reasonable at all?
Does it seem reasonable that Brian Kelly will have his worst coaching season of his entire career? For the record, I’d consider five losses in 2010 with Notre Dame’s talent much worse than Kelly’s 4-7 record in his first year at lowly Central Michigan.
Moreover, hypothetically move Notre Dame’s entire roster and coaching staff to a program like Georgia, Virginia Tech, or Nebraska…do you still think that program would only be average?
Would there be 50 teams still better than that collection of talent?
Notre Dame’s last two coaches won nine games in their first season in South Bend, Kelly won ten games in his first season in Cincinnati (34-6 overall), so why is it so hard to think that 10 wins is achievable in 2010?
Does Brian Kelly lose nearly as many games in one year at Notre Dame as he did in three years at Cincinnati? Especially when he’s inheriting a plethora of talent and experience like he’s never had the chance to coach before in his entire career?
Don’t believe me that Notre Dame doesn’t have a lot of talent?
If you’ve ever read Phil Steele’s preseason magazine as I’m sure many of you have, you’ll notice that he ranks players by their respective positions coming out of high school.
Now, take a look at Notre Dame’s roster.
There are a whopping 32 players that came to Notre Dame ranked in the top 20 nationally at their position.
32!
That is more than Ohio State (23), Michigan (19), Penn State (16) and Iowa (8).
We can recycle the old adage that recruiting rankings don’t mean much, but when Notre Dame has that many highly touted players, you know the roster is fairly loaded with premier talent.
Just look at Iowa’s roster in comparison to Notre Dame’s.
In a lot of ways the Irish make the Hawkeyes look like a much inferior team.
Yet, the big difference is that Iowa is known to develop their talent (something that Notre Dame has famously struggled to do) and the Hawkeyes have had a recent amount of success as of late, culminating in a BCS bowl victory last season.
Add that all up and it equals Iowa being a clear favorite against Notre Dame if the teams met in 2010, even though the Irish have more talent at 80 percent of the positions on the field.
I’m not saying the past doesn’t matter, but you can’t be chained to it either.
And a lot of Notre Dame fans and haters are obsessed with that past (especially anything negative) and have come to expect two or three losses to inferior teams and underdog opponents every single season.
If we can’t fight back the demons of the past in the form of a 3-9 season, home losses to Syracuse and UConn, and multiple fourth quarter meltdowns, at least there should be hope in what Brian Kelly has to offer.
Every fan is afraid of being let down, but now is the perfect time to be optimistic about the future, specifically because of Kelly’s track record of quickly improving teams and molding them into champions.
If Kirk Ferentz can take an Iowa program that doesn’t sniff a quarter of the talent that Notre Dame does, and can build them into BCS bowl champions, then imagine what Brian Kelly could do in South Bend.
Notre Dame won 6 games and almost won a handful more in 2009, and that was with multiple coaching problems and a completely dysfunctional running of the program by Charlie Weis.
Are we really to expect the same problems to keep holding the Irish down for years to come?
Has an entire generation of fans forgot what it’s like to watch a dominant Notre Dame team that they are incapable of believing the Irish could ever truly rise to national prominence again?
I think there are a lot of fans who are very happy with the way things are coming together with the Notre Dame program and are ecstatic over the hiring of Brian Kelly, for sure.
My issue is with the fans that share the same sentiments, but refuse to vocalize that and instead, take the easy path of low expectations.
We can all worry about a new coach, a new system, a new quarterback and take a “wait and see” approach if we want to. That is fine and quite right most of the time.
However, let’s be real. If Notre Dame plays up to its talent level and finally gets the proper coaching that has been lacking for the past 15 years, then nine or ten wins should be easily attainable in 2010.
Some may find that quite the bold statement, especially the haters of the world, but that’s only because we’ve grown accustomed to Notre Dame not playing up to its potential.
Expecting seven wins at best is fine for schools like Texas A&M and South Carolina, but not with the amount of talent that Notre Dame has, and not with the past success of Brian Kelly, even if this will be his first season in South Bend.
I’m not saying it’s a lock for Notre Dame to win ten games this fall, but rather, it is much more likely than the Irish losing five or six games again.
That is the important point to remember.
I think the faith in a greater future for Notre Dame needs to be embraced, especially from the wonderful people who make up the country’s best fan base.
For there could be wonderful things in store for the Fighting Irish football team a lot sooner than some people think.
Hornmatic said:
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:52 am
Good write up. Notre Dame has been a pretty hard team to handicap the past couple years. While your talent hasn’t been top ten it’s certainly been top 15-30 yet the results on the field haven’t matched that. I think Brian Kelly was a good pick up and will be a nice fit in South Bend. What do you think about Crist? Is he the guy to lead you to double digit wins…
I also think you touched on a lot of the psychological affects that fans can suffer due to repeated outcomes. As a longhorn fan I remember all too well the 00-04 years when we couldn’t get past OU. After losing every way imaginable from blowouts to nail biters a large portion of fan base simply believed we couldn’t beat stoops. We were jinxed, he had Mack’s number, etc. In 05 we had the best team in the country and clearly out manned OU in all phases of the game. Yet leading up to the Red River Rivalry we still had fans convinced we wouldn’t win. Of course we ended up laying the wood to them, 45-12, so it’s important to not rely too heavy on prior results when there are many other factors in play.
Hornmatic said:
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:04 pm
BTW, I see you guys in the 7-9 win range.
whiskey said:
July 23rd, 2010 at 12:40 pm
Rocket great write up. I would say that mentality is pretty normal it just sucks to see it in the ND fan base. It kind of tells the tale about how the last several years have been. The more important issue is the mental state of the team. If Kelly can get them both physically and mentally ready to play at a high level the W’s will follow as will the attitude and expectations of the fan base. That is the 2 sentence version of somethig I could ramble on about for pages.
Hornmatic thanks for the comment. I think the talent level is actually much higher than most people think. That is probably at least partially due to the exact thing Rocket is talking about. If ND had great talent wouldn’t they be better than .500? One would think so but it obviously didn’t go that way the last couple of years under Weis.
I have rambled on at length about talent around here but in short I think that ND really has Top 10 talent on the roster right now. Now mix in a proven winner in Brian Kelly and I think you have all the ingredients to win a lot of football games. Kelly’s teams at Cincy had nowhere near the talent that ND has on the roster right now. I think ND will win at least 9 games this fall.
Rocket89 said:
July 23rd, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Hornmatic-
Hopefully, we can follow in Texas’ footsteps and start laying the hurt on USC like you guys did to OU.
I really like Crist. From a skill standpoint, there’s not much to dislike (except his recovering knee of course). He’s got a rocket arm, he’s big and he can move around and has good wheels. But maybe more than that, I dig his leadership and how he’s handled being in Clausen’s shadow and suffering his injury. He gives off the same kind of confidence that we’ll win a lot like Quinn did. Clausen never gave us that feeling.
Two things concern me with Crist (again besides his leg, which I think will be fine). One is his accuracy. Last year he threw some ugly balls in limited playing time. He has a cannon arm but we’re still not sure how accurate he really is. I think the switch in systems will help him and the spring game showed that he’ll at least have decent accuracy, if not very good accuracy.
The second is kind of part of the first, but it’s how many turnovers will he cause? It’s a big question on how he’ll handle the pressure of college ball and what his decision making will be like. Then again, gotta like having Kelly back there teaching him.
I’m almost positive he’ll get 3,000 yards fairly easy and approach 30 TD’s…just too many weapons in the offense for him not to. But if he throws 15 picks there could be some problems. I’m hoping he keeps it under 10 for the season.
Whiskey-
I wrote this really quickly after reading a few haters and ND fans say that 5-7 wins should be acceptable this year. Ugh. Had to get this off my chest.
I think we have top 10 talent too…or somewhere very close to that. I’d say our offense definitely has a top 10 talent, maybe top 5 or top 3 right now. Our defense is probably anywhere from 25 to 40 depending on your opinion I guess. Just not enough talent at defensive end and safety to be close to top 10 there…we all know that.
I keep asking myself what the record will be next year and I keep coming back to no more than 4 losses.
I just can’t see Kelly losing 5 times. Maybe the biggest thing I think we’ll see is that not only will we stop losing games we should most definitely win, but we may very well start winning games we shouldn’t.
We’re due to start beating ranked teams and fulfilling our talent.
Kenneth said:
July 23rd, 2010 at 4:28 pm
I absolutely agree with you, and I could not be more excited for Football season. But, I am still scared. Keep posts like this up. I need to shake myself from this funk of mediocrity.
Go Irish! Beat Everyone!
Rocket89 said:
July 23rd, 2010 at 6:45 pm
Kenneth-
Hopefully Brian Kelly shakes the crap out of the funk of mediocrity.
Bellanca said:
July 23rd, 2010 at 7:38 pm
Greetings from Iowa.
Newsflash: no one cares what these guys did in high school. “High school talent” is right up there with “I want to be a writer when I grow up” or “I dated the cutest girl in the sophomore class.”
If Kelly can recruit, train, and coach his boys, ND will be back. But nobody cares at all about high school performance and relative value measures off a web site that gives you a headache to glance at. This “talent” thing is bullshit, because it quickly comes down to a) a teaching coaching staff; b) a smart guy in the gym every day at 6 a.m., directing training.
whiskey said:
July 23rd, 2010 at 9:36 pm
Bellanca I totally agree with your perspective on coaching etc. but I have to disagree on the talent piece. While recruiting rankings are far from perfect they can give us probability. Higher ranked players have a greater probability of being productive, and better overall class rankings provide a greater probability for on field success. At the end of the day the same programs that tend to dominate the recruiting rankings also tend to dominate the polls. The correlation is undeniable.
There are also obvious exceptions that jump out as obvious underachievers and overachievers. Weis underachieved the last two years with the talent at ND while Kelly overachieved at Cincy. As ND fans that is an exciting situation. Brian Kelly was already in the race but he just got a brand new car with a lot more horsepower.
Thanks for the comment, this topic always makes for a fun discussion.
pablo said:
July 24th, 2010 at 2:53 am
great post, though Bellanca’s comment illustrates a fundamental disconnect with many fans’ recognition of talent. rightfully, they want to see it on the field but wrongly cling to the fallacy that recruiting rankings indicate nothing. i am by no means a recruitnik, but at least have been exposed to the “undeniable correlation” between average “star-rankings,” weighted by class, and success on the field. many people simply have not and their perspective is understandable when you look around and see all the busts and the handful of under/over-achieving programs every year.
more than any other factor, most fans, ND and otherwise, seem to be oblivious to is the wealth of talent in the defensive front 7, particularly in the rising junior class recruited to play a 3-4 (the theme of the off-season for those who troll the blogosphere). these same people also seem to have forgotten just how devastating Tenuta’s effect was upon the defense as a whole. if at least 2 of the 3 highly-talented CB’s can return to form (which should happen without being constantly left out to dry) and the razor-thin safety position can avoid serious injury, it seems this could easily be a top-20 defense (or way better, if you start to sip some of Mike Elston’s kool-aid). seems to me that Diaco doesn’t have to work any miracles, he just has to be a guy not named Tenuta who can avoid confusing the hell out of Harrison Smith.
these factors, along with the almost universally recognized wealth of talent and top-coaching on offense, reasonably support high expectations … if Crist stays healthy.
incidentally, since I really don’t understand most of the X’s and O’s (esp. on defense), perhaps you could offer some insight as to how Tenuta could have screwed up our defense sooo much in such a short time — particularly considering his generally successful history. was it forcing the 3-4 type players into a 4-3? the fact that a lot of them were underclassmen? lack of chemistry between him and Corwin? all of the above maybe?
pablo said:
July 24th, 2010 at 3:34 am
i guess the point of that inquiry is really this: is it delusional to expect a VASTLY improved defense this year?
Rocket89 said:
July 24th, 2010 at 8:35 am
Bellanca-
Recruiting star players from high school matters. There’s just no other way around it. I think maybe because you’re from Iowa and you’re not bringing in hyped classes but still finding success, you may think otherwise, no?
Ferentz has done a great job building that program and developing his players. Yet, at the end of the day, Iowa is right next to Notre Dame over the past 12 years or so in winning percentage and due to a BCS bowl win last year, can only said to have been slightly better than the Irish during the worst stretch in school history for ND. So while I think Iowa is a great example of how a good coaching staff can improve a team, I think if you asked most people they would tell you Iowa won’t win a national title unless it starts bringing better talent.
Rocket89 said:
July 24th, 2010 at 8:47 am
Pablo-
The defense is still a mystery to me. I expect improvement, but I don’t think they have the talent to be a top 20 defense.
The front 7 is very strong, but cannot be called dynamic yet. My biggest worry is the pass defense, but I’m hoping we get a lot of pressure on opposing QB’s to alleviate some of those issues. Looking at Cincy’s sack and TFL stats last year makes me excited.
Tenuta just confused the hell out of the whole defense. I don’t think I’ve ever watched a team where you could see a player so obviously unaware of what to do out there on such a consistent basis.
Those players were not meant to play a 4-3, either. We’ve got to get Fleming and Filer out there more often at LB.
The blitzing packages were just ridiculous. I think back to the USC game where Barkley couldn’t have had an easier day. Blitzing so many players left receivers wide open for easy yards. Barkley probably had 200 yards on four or five throws to guys with no one near them.
I like Diaco’s no-crease defense. He’s been talking about defeating blocks, plugging holes, and winning the line of scrimmage. That seems a lot more conservative compared to sending two linebackers and a nickel back flying into the backfield and passed the play…but that’s exactly what we need to do I believe.
Better coaching, another year of experience, and a system that fits our personnel will make them better. I think we’ll see all of the defensive statistics drop by 20 or 30. That would put us somewhere in the 40 range. At least that’s what I expect.
Ted said:
July 24th, 2010 at 10:25 am
The important role high school football plays is to show potential in an 18 year old. I believe subjective “star” ratings are vastly overrated. Sorry about that Tom Lemming…and the others who eat and sleep the number of stars a high school senior has.
I agree that the expectation of a 7-5 season is low. In fact, I told a friend, who is also a huge ND fan that if have that record at the end of the 2010 season, the wolves will be nipping at Brian Kelly. I don’t believe that will happen. He is too good of a proven coach for that to take place, and he has the staff to make all of the players better.
The defense will be vastly improved. It has to be, because it was bad last year. I believe the offense will be very good, but of course much of that depends on Dayne. A great deal may come back on how well the coaching staff develops our #2 and #3 quarterbacks.
Sailor Ripley said:
July 24th, 2010 at 11:18 am
Great write up, Rocket.
I seem to remember hearing rumblings that Kelly had felt the talent level wasn’t great after the Spring? Did I dream this in my head like Mike Crabtree?
Is part of the issue top heaviness. A bunch of elite skill guys and no beef? Ora smattering of each but not enough depth to be effective?
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Rocket89 said:
July 24th, 2010 at 11:57 am
Ted-
The stars have to matter. Sure we see 3 star players rise to the top a lot of the time, but the dominant teams are stacked with 4 and 5 star guys.
I’m excited to see Kelly develop Hendrix at quarterback. I have a feeling he’ll be the No. 2 guy relatively quickly this season. He has a really good skill set that fits perfectly with Kelly’s offense. But I’ll punch a hole in a hole if Crist gets hurt.
whiskey said:
July 24th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
Pablo if you are looking for a better understanding of where the defense has been and where it is going our very own LB Coach has written a great series of posts on it that you can find at THIS LINK.
I would suggest starting at the bottom and working your way up. They have an unbelievable amount of information in them that will shed a lot of light on the defense for you.
Also consider me in the camp that expects the defense to be vastly improved this fall.
Rocket89 said:
July 24th, 2010 at 12:06 pm
Sailor Ripley-
Kelly has said a handful of negative things since becoming coach. It’s hard to tell what is real and what is just a ploy to motivate guys, you know?
From what I can tell he’s mentioned that there isn’t a lot of speed on the edge, and I take that in the fact that there aren’t any super freaks at defensive end. A lot of us are thinking that maybe Ethan Johnson turns into an All-American, but he’s more of a power rusher. ND definitely needs a couple Javon Kearse-type edge rushers that all the elite teams seem to churn out every year.
Personally, I think Kelly is doing a little bit of the Holtz thing and talking down about his team on purpose. I just can’t see how he can’t be doing carthwheels that he got to overtake an Irish squad with the talent that is in place. Maybe he’s really set on winning a title right now and if that’s the case, then I guess he’s right that the talent level isn’t there yet. But I think it’s close.
There are some depth issues, but not a whole lot. The receiving corps is as good as I think it’s ever been in recent history (if we include TE’s Rudolph & Ragone)and there’s more WR’s on Scholarship than ever. The O-line is deep too…a far cry from the end of Willingham’s days when there were only 7 lineman who could play.
QB is kind of a scary situation with Crist and then all freshmen. The whole secondary is thin and the biggest weakness IMO. I think that overall there’s a good mix of elite guys and solid 3 and 4 star players ready to get their feet wet. The backup talent is like it is at Texas or Florida, but it’s still pretty strong.
Rocket89 said:
July 24th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
The backup talent isn’t* like it is at Texas or Florida.
Miller said:
August 7th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
Rocket,
I have thoroughly enjoyed reading your articles as well as your posts. And, I agree that the ND psyche is in the dumps. Even Mark May (a so-called ND hater) has predicted 10 wins this season. I am expecting a BCS season with 10+ wins.
With expectations of finally winning games against Top 25 programs and ending the USC streak, I see ND in the title hunt. Most fans do not realize just how close we were in 2005 when we played OSU in the Fiesta Bowl during CW’s first season. To me, that was the defunct NC game because it pitted ND who nearly beat (and, should have) #1 USC against OSU who nearly beat (and, should have) #2 Texas. Had OSU and ND won those two games that were clearly within reach then they would have been playing for the NC.
ND had the consensus #2 rated class in 2008 behind Alabama and these kids are now juniors. However, ND did it with 23 recruits while Alabama had roughly 32. What is little talked about is that ND brought all 23 players in while Alabama did not so, we effectively have the #1 junior class in the nation right now. BK has virtually hit the lottery with ND this year and I expect him to capitalize on it right away. Granted, two 5-star recruits from this class may be gone after this year but that is not a given so he has two years to dominate CFB with the #1 class…ala Lou Holtz.
With BK’s track record of winning and developing talent, ND is in for a fun ride this season and (hopefully) many seasons to come. There’s an air of confidence, not seen since Ara took over, around ND. Remember what he did his first year – 9-1 with a late loss to USC that kept the Irish from a title. Most fans see BK as the next Lou but I see him as the next Ara and believe he will mirror Ara’s accomplishments at ND – only BETTER.
The legend of BK is born in 2010 and ND fans (haters alike) better fasten their seat belts because we are in for a wild ride. September 4th cannot get here soon enough for this Irish fan.
Rocket89 said:
August 7th, 2010 at 8:03 pm
Miller,
Your post certainly got me pumped up for the season!
I’ve been thinking a lot lately that what if Kelly really is “better” than Holtz? Or in other words, what if he turns out to be like Ara? Man, that gets me so excited.
The fan inside of me keeps jumping out and screaming that Notre Dame could be really, really good this year. I think I expect 3 or 4 losses, but I can’t say I’d be that surprised if Kelly led this team to a 10-2 or 11-1 record.
But first things first. I think we’re going to blow the hinges right off Purdue’s door on September 4th.
BORN IRISH said:
August 10th, 2010 at 12:04 am
I still enjoy watching Norte Dame Football however, my enthu’ has kind of dwindled over the years. The next 3 or 4 years should tell if the college landscape has changed enough to make the Irish less than the marquee brand they were? Maybe the conditioning and training techniques have leveled the field I.E. Iowa, or maybe some conferences have surpased Notre Dame with multiple teams such as The Southeastern, but Notre Dame has been trying with coach after coach and it just doesn’t seem to happen. If you believe the stars awarded by these writers Notre Dame should be way up there every year. however, schools like Wisconsin and Iowa who are way down on the recruiting list seem to make these kids into much bigger and stronger kids by time their seniors. Again, the next few years will tell.
Rocket89 said:
August 10th, 2010 at 6:07 am
Born Irish,
15 years is a long time, but it’s only been three coaches who have failed at Notre Dame. And in hindsight, neither of them were any good to begin with.
The Brian Kelly era will be a HUGE test. It’s something I’ve discussed a little bit earlier in the spring, but what if Kelly fails too? I don’t think it will happen, but there’s a big difference between Davie/Willingham/Weis failing and a coach like Kelly failing.
I also think Wisconsin and Iowa piggyback relatively easy schedules on a yearly basis and this helps out immensely over a decade or longer. Even in this most terrible of down period (1997-2009) Notre Dame is still neck and neck with Iowa in terms of winning percentage.
And as I showed in a piece on ND’s strength of schedule in comparison to the Big Ten, Wisconsin has probably the worst SoS out of all the teams. Just take a look at their out of conference opponents in recent years:
Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, Hawaii, Akron, Marshall, Fresno State, Cal-Poly, Washington State, UNLV, Citadel, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, San Diego State, Western Illinois, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Temple, North Carolina, Hawaii, UCF, UNLV, Arizona….
There’s only 3 or 4 games in there that could even be considered challenging for a upper echelon BCS team. Then throw in the fact that Wisky has only played Ohio State 9 times in the last 13 years, lost 5 of those games, and has only beaten “very good” OSU team (’03) and it changes your perspective on things.
Not to say that Wisconsin isn’t a good program, but it makes life a heck of a lot easier when you don’t have to worry about any tough OOC games and just focus on three or four Big Ten games a year, and maybe not even play the best team in the conference. That leads to a healthier team, a team with more confidence, more bowls wins, and a whole lot of 9 and 10 win seasons that feel more like 7 or 8 win seasons as far as I’m concerned.
Anyway, I’m very confident in Brian Kelly’s abilities. One of the big keys in the next couple of years will to finally beat some ranked teams. Keep an eye out for that.
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