Football Articles
Notre Dame Recruiting 2012: Brian Kelly Rides the Wave
Posted by Michael Collins on March 8th, 2011 under Football, Recruiting
Brian Kelly and the Irish are on a high. Riding the crest of an impressive four game winning streak to end the 2011 season, a Bob Diaco led defense that matured and dominated their opponents in the second half of the season, a top-ranked 2011 recruiting class especially in the defensive front seven, and nineteen returning starters, Brian Kelly and his staff intend on riding that wave of momentum and capitalizing with Notre Dame’s 2012 recruiting class. The significance of this class cannot be understated. With this class, Kelly could potentially fill all of the positional holes, build further recruiting momentum, and take the Irish into a recruiting model that moves from rebuilding to an established model with only yearly needs.
Needs and Numbers
We expect a class of 20 starting with six 5th years and seven Seniors without eligibility after this upcoming season. Of the fourteen Seniors with eligibility left, let’s hypothetically take half for 5th years. Of course, that could be less. Right now that would give us twenty in the 2012 class.
The 2012 recruiting class needs start up the middle – RB, C/OG, NT, S – to either fill holes left due to more pressing needs for the 2011 class or graduation. Our Roster Breakdown shows the holes left from recruiting over the years at C, OG, NT, CB, S. LS is also a consideration with this class.
Three offensive linemen – Dever, Nuss and Robinson – will have used up their eligibility, leaving ten offensive linemen. Kelly could move any of three new commits – Carrico, Hounshell or Springmann – to the offensive side. Only Cave is a true center two years of eligibility left. Three defensive backs – Gray, Smith and Blanton – will be in their last years, leaving ten defensive backs counting Jackson and Collinsworth. The speed with which they can adapt to their new positions will be crucial for depth in 2011 and impact in 2012.
Some other notes – Kelly has one scholarship left to fill out his 85 total. The staff may give that one to Joe Schmidt, ILB, who was granted preferred walk-on status in the 2011 class. Chris Badger, S, is scheduled to return from his mission in 2012. Attrition and transfers can always be a factor before Signing Day in February, but so far this team looks solid.
Positional Needs
With both starting CBs (Blanton, Gray) exhausting their eligibility and Michael Floyd moving on to the NFL after 2011, the opportunities for early playing time for stud prospects at those positions is tremendous. Lo Wood is the only other CB with significant experience at the position. Tee Shepard is considered one of the top cornerbacks nationally, but another is needed.
I would fill the projected class at the following positions:
QB – 1
RB – 2
WR – 2
TE – 1
OL – 4 (Verbal Commit – Taylor Decker, OT)
DE – 2
NT – 1
ILB – 1
OLB – 2
S – 2
CB – 2 (Verbal Commit – Tee Shepard)
If either Chris Badger fills the need at Safety and/or Austin Collingsworth develops quickly, the Irish may take only one. Kelly’s staff has been talking with the top LS early on in the process.
Verbal Offers and National Recruiting
According to IUB at Gold Helmet, Kelly has verbally offered 99 prospects in 24 states with the recruiting hotbeds of Florida (16), Texas (14), Ohio (13) and California (11) accounting for more than half (54) of the offers. Maryland (5), Georgia (4), Arizona (4), Illinois (3), Michigan (3), New Jersey (3), North Carolina (3) and Washington (3) are in the next group.
At this time last year, all offers were written offers. This year written offers go out on August 1st. Some of the verbal offers may not translate into written offers at that time. Some offers may only be actionable when a prospect takes a visit to Notre Dame.
Taking all that into account, Notre Dame’s 2012 class may end up having the same amount of written offers as last year – 124.
Using the 247 database for comparisons, Notre Dame has verbally offered 92 prospects, Alabama – 80, Florida – 78, Auburn – 67, Michigan – 61, Michigan State – 52, USC – 43, Ohio State – 39, Oklahoma – 38, Stanford – 35, Texas – 27, and Oregon – 11.
Offers By Position
The highest number of offers by Brian Kelly and his staff by position per Gold Helmet (link above) are:
19 Offensive Tackles (1 Committed to ND, 2 Committed Elsewhere)
18 Wide Receivers (4 Committed Elsewhere)
13 Defensive Ends (8 Weakside DEs and 5 Strongside DEs – 1 Committed Elsewhere)
8 Defensive Tackles (1 Committed Elsewhere)
5 Safeties
5 Cornerbacks (1 Committed to ND)
8 Athletes (1 Committed Elsewhere)
Of the “Athlete” offers, most are targeting DB positional needs, though many now play WR in their high school. WRs in Kelly’s philosophy of the recruiting “Skill” athletes can be switched to DBs. The emphasis is also on recruiting speed.
Kelly tends to recruit OTs for Offensive Linemen in his spread offense, ideally preferring the taller ones with longer wingspan and quick feet for his OTs like Tate Nichols and Taylor Decker. The shorter, mobile OTs may be moved inside to OG. High school positions for the DEs often mean the Weakside DEs may move to Outside Linebackers in Diaco’s 3-4 whose defensive ends are usually both larger DEs.
Kelly, Diaco, Martin and the staff have demonstrated their ability to target the best prospects for the Irish and to quickly move to backup plans, if necessary. Over the spring and summer, much will change in recruiting players for this class. Prospects are evidencing a lot of interest in being a part of Brian Kelly’s Irish. Irish fans’ confidence is returning to optimistic levels.
Tee Shepard and Taylor Decker give Notre Dame’s 2012 a great start not only for their talent, but also fill positions of need. I’ll examine some of the prospects for the class at each position with upcoming articles.
What do you think?
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Jim Miesle said:
March 8th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
Michael –
Nice breakdown. Based on the DL haul from last year, I would guess that 2 of those guys move over to OL by the end of camp. I still think BK takes 3-4 OL, but needs to focus on C/G as you stated. There is sure to be one more OT taken as well, so who knows maybe they end up with 5.
I would disagree with 2 RBs. I think you take only one, and if there is a second, one will switch to WR. In a single back offense, you don’t need the numbers back there. One per season will suffice.
Also, you think only 1 ILB? There is probably more of a need there than OLB. The 2011 class has 3 OLBs (Williams, Councell, Rabasa). Is Spond really an ILB? He may be a better fit at Dog. Of course Utupo may have to move inside just based on his size. I think the numbers will be switched, but all depends on what the walk-on shows in camp.
DB is an interesting area of need. As you stated, ND will lose 3 of 4 starters after this season. After 2012 Motta and Slaughter will be done, so safety is a higher priority in my eyes. Badger will definitely help, but won’t be back on campus until the summer of 2012. A top of the line S is essential along with another top CB to compliment Shepard.
20 looks like the magic number. I can see one or perhaps two more based on attrition, but no more than that. It will be interesting to watch, and even with the high number of offers out there, I think BK is being a bit more cautious with the numbers limitations.
March 8th, 2011 at 5:10 pm
I wouldn’t take 4 O-linemen, but it looks like Kelly is hell bent on reshaping it and bringing in a lot of new bodies.
I’d rather get 4 corners and adopt the SEC model of having 8 corners in the 2011 and 2012 classes and hoping three of them turn out to be great.
2 running backs has to be a priority I think. I don’t typically like taking just one because if he turns out not to be good that leaves a hole that is harder to replace than say, the O-line.
Overall, we’re in a good spot. We don’t need a lot of numbers besides the secondary and that should allow the coaching staff to focus on bringing in more studs.
March 8th, 2011 at 8:45 pm
Jim,
Nice points as always. RBs – After this year, we will have Wood, Roberson, and McDaniel, unless Riddick switches back. I can see taking a speed back and a power back so that we have five backs for 2012. OL – no true C has been offered, which makes me think someone will switch to Center as Olsen did. I think the staff takes two inside linemen and possibly waits on a five star for LOT. We could be done there with the flexibility from our DL commits last year. However, if a top OT wants to commit, we take him.
LBs- the offers to indicate a lot of interest in the type of WDE/LBs similar to last year. We could have a couple more offers for true ILBs yet to make or two or three of the DEs could move to LB.
“Athlete” offers are clearly some of the players targeted for the DB positions. I agree a top Safety commit puts us in very good shape in that area. As for numbers, the last four classes have consisted of 23, 23, 18, 23 signees with an average of 3 leaving per class (not including 2011).
March 8th, 2011 at 8:59 pm
Eric,
I agree the secondary is a primary need, but not sure I’d take four. DL recruiting is most intriguing. Ohio is full of quality DEs this year with Ohio State probably taking only two. If we get another two DEs this year, we are stockpiling talent with time to mature in the S&C program. Our weakness in the last few years will soon be our strength.
Ohio is an area that Kelly will continue to fight for in the future and would be great to establish a solid presence for recruiting.
Jim Miesle said:
March 9th, 2011 at 6:33 am
Michael –
Any thoughts on who the next C is? I know Hanratty’s name keeps getting thrown in there, and Hounshell might be a good fit based on size. Its not a position that just anyone can play in the spread. It would be great to see the next Jeff Faine walk through the door in the 2012 class.
I understand the want for 2 RBs, but will that make it a tougher selling point for top recruits? If they did take 2, I would want one that could be like Riddick and potentially line up in the back field or split out to the slot.
Denman and Voltz look like to OL that are very high on the Irish right now. Denman is listed at 6’8″ on one site and 6’6″ on another. Apparently his footwork is phenomenal due to basketball, so if he is on the shorter side, I could see him moving inside. Voltz is more of a true OG but is another that could be groomed at the OC position.
Eric –
Wow, 4 CBs seems a bit high. Depends on the the players. If two of those guys could fit in at S, then maybe you are onto something. I don’t know about adopting a SEC policy, because those involve grayshirting and pulling scholarships on kids, right? The position is a big need but since the coaching staff has pretty specific requirements in size (I think 5’10″ is the absolute shortest) it makes it a bit more difficult to recruit for the position. Definitely a situation to continue to monitor.
Lee Kirkland said:
March 9th, 2011 at 7:43 am
Looking at the 99 offers for 2012, none are from Pennsylvania, This is amazing considering ND’s history of recruiting in this state.
March 9th, 2011 at 7:46 am
I just meant adopting the SEC-like policy of bringing in a lot of players in order to filter out the not-so-good ones, and just at corner.
For 2012, we’ll have Lo Wood, Bennett Jackson, Jalen Brown, Josh Atkinson and Eilar Hardy at corner. If we’re lucky Tee Sheppard could be a legitimate starting corner as a freshman.
Just looking at the group (mostly because of inexperience) I’m not terribly excited. If someone like Hardy would suffer a season ending injury…yikes.
I’m just saying we need at least three corners and I’d take four, especially if two of them are the athlete types who could switch positions. Do we really NEED 4 offensive linemen after just picking up 4 or 5 guys in 2011 (assuming position switches)? If the choice came down to taking 3 O-linemen and picking up an extra corner, how can you not with the way the depth chart looks? We’ll have two upperclassmen (Wood & Jackson) at corner in 2012 and one guy might be a borderline starter in terms of talent and the other was a receiver.
The Piper said:
March 9th, 2011 at 11:19 am
Good rundown. Helpful. I don’t see how they don’t try to take 2 safeties. There’s no way that Collinsworth shows so much promise in 3mths that he makes them alter their safety recruiting moves.
HBMichael said:
March 9th, 2011 at 11:40 am
I know it was coincidence, but if you look at your breakdown of position needs it greatly resembles and entire starting offense and entire starting defense (save one OL and one ILB). Safe to say if you get that breakdown every year you would have the depth you need.
NDJL said:
March 9th, 2011 at 8:36 pm
Games are won or lost in the trenches. 4 OL (or 3 OL & 1 LS) looks right. C is not a position that needs specific recruiting. Right now we have OGs Watt & Golic, either of which can play C. Bring in top linemen and put the best 5 on the field.
2 RB, because we need one who is shifty (ala Wood/Allen/Riddick) who can also catch and maybe play a little leprecat, and one sledgehammer (ala Hughes) to end drives like that last one at USC.
6 WR/DB, including 2 CBs & at least one top rated S.
1 QB, take one in each recruiting cycle.
1 TE, one each cycle.
1 LS, if he’s the best in this class. He would replace one of the 4 OL spots.
Games are won or lost in the trenches. 1 DT & 2 DE. Good point about all those DEs in Ohio, and let’s hope for another Nix on the nose.
3 LB, two OLB, one top ILB.
That would be my 20. I hope they are all RKGs.
Michael Collins said:
March 9th, 2011 at 10:00 pm
Lee,
Noah Spence, Harrisburg, WDE/OLB is on the list, a top target and one of the first group offered. With three more confirmed offers today, the century mark was blasted through – 102 offers — 2 WRs (21 at this time) and another TE. Two of today’s offers again are from the Mid-Atlantic States (or is South Carolina in the Deep South).
ND has made inroads in Pennsylvania evidenced by six PA visitors to the recent Jr Day, including a Center. Maybe their offers come later in the cycle.
Michael Collins said:
March 9th, 2011 at 10:09 pm
NDJL,
I agree with you on every point. Pick the best five OL, a bruiser like Hughes would complement a burner RB plus a bit more depth at RB is essential more than 1 per year. The LS ND has been talking with is also a Center and 6’4″, 230 pounds, and the top LS this year.
Games are won in the trenches with the Big Uglies. Control the lines of scrimmage and have a dominant defense and the wins will come. Linemen need time to develop and we’ve seen what happened in 2007 when talented players one year out of high school had to try to protect Clausen and establish a running game.
Michael Collins said:
March 9th, 2011 at 10:33 pm
Jim,
Another OL high on the Irish is Mark Harrell, OT, from North Carolina. Kyle Murphy, CA, OT had ND in his early top 4. Jordan Simmons, OT, CA and Joshua Garnett, OT, WA are top targets with mutual interest. The three West coasters all recently attended a Cal Jr Day, perhaps an indication that with diminishing USC scholarships and the sanctions, that those prospects are looking elsewhere.
As for Centers, both Hanratty and Hounshell could be candidates. It’s clear that for OLmen a couple of years in the weight room and working on technique are instrumental in success. I expect BK may push the envelope of the limit of offers to get linemen in this year’s classes to redshirt more of them in preparation for their third and fourth years. The last time we built that kind of depth was when Davie was coach. We are almost there.
whiskey said:
March 10th, 2011 at 7:22 pm
Good stuff Michael. I think HBMichael’s comment kind of puts the situation into context. It is really nice to watch ND enter a recruiting cycle and not be thinking “damn we really need to load up at X position.”
The nice thing about this cycle is that there is already quality depth on the roster and as you pointed out 14 seniors eligible for a 5th year. I like it. Kelly will keep the right ones, recruit for continued quality depth and the incoming freshmen will all have time to develop.
If a kid ends up being talented enough to start early it is a bonus but we won’t be depending on it next February. The arrow on the program is pointing straight up. Good things are on the horizon.
I can’t wait to watch it all come to fruition on the field.
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the four horseman were nothing without the seven mules.
the speed of a defense is necessary for victory.
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